What's the deal with the Iranian elections?

#freeiran

That's a 'Twitter' 'hashtag' that's winging its way across the Internet right now, spread viraly by millions of 'Twitterers' decrying the alleged election fraud that took place in Iran.

But let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment. Are these accusations of fraud authentic?

Don't get me wrong. I loathe incumbent president Mahmūd Ahmadinezhād as much as anybody. I was fervently hoping for the predicted landslide for his opponent, reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi Khameneh.

But when the election results came in - with Ahmadinezhad winning the election by an average of two votes to one - I was suspicious of just how fast people started crying 'fraud!'

It would be desirable and convenient for the disgusting Ahmadinezhad to be ousted from office, but we must never allow ourselves to buy into the belief that if you want something to be true, you can make it true (kind of like fundamentalists to try to with creationism.)

As much as I'd like to join in the clamor for electoral equality, let's examine the evidence first.

Iran's a big country and this election saw a voter turnout of nearly 85%. That meant almost 40 million votes were tallied (according to BBC Persian.) Of those votes, Ahmadinezhad won over 24.5 million of them.

Contrary to the cries of 'fraud,' this actually matches the results predicted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion. Three weeks before the election, this non-profit group held an independent poll and found that twice as many people pledged to vote for the incumbent president as Mousavi.

Supporting this analysis, Guardian contributor Abbas Barzegar argued that the western response to the election results showed complete ignorance of the real situation in Iran. Western media, such as the BBC and the New York Times, tended to concentrate on opinion and analysis from more liberal Iranians, coming from wealthier parts of the country. This ignored, according to Barzegar, "the wide support Ahmadinejad enjoys in poor and rural communities."

There is some logic to that opinion. If residents of only New York City and San Francisco had been polled in the leadup to the 2004 Presidential Election, nobody would imagine George W. Bush could win a second term. However, that's exactly what he did - with the support of America's infrequently opinioned 'heartland'

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, in an article in The Politico, pointed out much the same thing. In the 2005 Presidential Election, when facing similarly moderate Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ahmadinezhad won with almost 62% of the vote. That's practically the same result as in this disputed election - but, of course, there was no outcry of 'fraud' last time around.

It's certainly true that we, in the West, made certain assumptions about the election that didn't necessarily hold true. Mousavi, for example, was expected to poll well in his native Azeri provinces. However, Ahmadinezhad's speaks fluent Azeri and ran a blinding campaign in the two provinces (even quoting Azeri and Turkish poetry onstage.)

To quote the United States Intelligence Service, as they pragmatically analysed the results: "It is not outside the realm of possibility that Ahmadinejad won this election."

They, too, conclude that the Western media were relying on biased opinion from expatriate Iranians and urbane, pro-Western correspondents from capital city Tehran. The US officials wearily noted: "Tehran is Tehran, but it’s not Iran."

M K Bhadrakumar, writing in the Asia Times, dismissed even the post-election protests as 'inconsequential' - carried out by wealthy, young members of the 'Gucci crowd.' They are unrepresentative of the 'real Iran' and "the rural poor who, in their multitudes, form the bulk of voters and constitute Ahmadinejad's political base."

In short, it possible - perhaps even likely - that the election results were as fair as can be expected to be in a country like Iran.

Certainly, there are questions raised. At least 30 polling sites reported voter turnout of 'over 100%' and the New York Times reported a leak from the Interior Ministry hinting at a fraud campaign that had "been prepared for weeks."

But are any of these allegations truly convincing? Walter R. Mebane Jr., professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan (and an expert on detecting electoral fraud) concluded: "There are suspicious elements here, but there's no solid evidence of fraud."

Likewise, Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett suggested that the anomalies identified in the Iranian election results were less significant than those of the 2000 Presidential Election in America (specifically, the debacle in Florida.)

I certainly don't want to be identified as a supporter of Ahmadinezhad - but in objective, rational analysis of this election, the evidence strongly suggests that his victory is legitimate.

We don't have to like it, but we may have to accept it. The media circus surrounding the 'election fraud' is damaging our credibility. It sends a message to the people of Iran that America and the west are only willing to support sovereign democracy if the people of that nation vote 'the right way.'

In this instance, they didn't. But that was their choice to make - and in the absence of any cold, hard, credible evidence to prove otherwise, we might just have to shut up and accept that.

The Election Aftermath

Well, the voters of New Jersey have spoken.

On Election Day 2007 - which I covered here - the people of Middlesex County voted in resounding support of their incumbent mayors, with only South River's Robert Szegeti getting booted off in favour of Republican challenger Raymond Eppinger.

And while this leaves South River with a 'one party' local government (the mayor and five council members are now Republican) the rest of New Jersey remained grudgingly loyal to the Democrats - although how they approached the four 'voters questions' revealed that they want their democratic representatives to rein in the spending and stay fiscally conservative.

North Brunswick's mayor, Francis 'Mac' Womack III was welcomed back for another term - and good for him. He's done our township proud.

Aside from choosing our representatives, however, voters of New Jersey were asked to vote on four specific 'questions' that effected our great state.

The first was:

1: Should New Jersey permanently dedicate a percentage of revenue earned from sales tax towards property tax relief?

New Jersey said no.

Which was the right decision, no doubts about it. While New Jersey has some of the highest property tax in the whole of the United States, it seems entirely illogical to take money out of one tax pool to alleviate the sting of the other. If New Jersey has such an enormous surplus in their sales tax revenue, perhaps they ought to lower the tax rate?

Or, alternatively, they should use that revenue stream to pay for whatever it is that keeps the property taxes so high?

Although it is more complicated than that. Sales tax is raised on a state level, while property taxes are raised by the townships where people live. It's easy to forget that government in America is a multi-tiered structure and the different tiers have responsibility paying for different things.

But accepting that makes the proposed property tax relief even more illogical. If property taxes pay for schooling, rubbish collection and local police and fire services - things only a particular township benefit from - why should the entire state of New Jersey bail out particular townships via the sales tax?

Because rerouting sales tax revenue to offer property tax relief essentially leaves everybody in New Jersey - renters and property owners alike - bailing out the home owners. Which simply isn't fair.

2: Should New Jersey approve borrowing $450 million for stem cell research?

Again, the answer was a resounding no.

On the surface, I think that's a very good thing. Borrowing such an astonishing amount of money to pump into an uncertain science doesn't make good financial sense. The people of New Jersey pay their taxes to receive the benefit of public services - not to invest in ill-considered business adventures.

My suspicion is, however, that many people voted 'no' simply because of the scary concept of stem cell research. There has been a pretty good disinformation campaign about this fledgling science that has people scared of human cloning and other people worried about the thought of human embryos being used in research.

To reject this proposal because it made poor financial sense is a good thing. To reject it because of ignorance and fear is bad. Stem cell research can be conducted ethically and might offer the chance to repair nerve damage and diseases that are currently untreatable.

It could herald a new era in science and medicine. We shouldn't reject it simply because we want to remain in the blissfully ignorant dark ages.

3: Should New Jersey approve borrowing $200 million for open space preservation?

New Jersey voted yes.

Which is a great victory. A victory because the borrowed $200 million can be invested in keeping the 'Garden State' living up to it's name. Forests, grassland, farmland and plains can be preserved and protected from aggressive redevelopment, meaning a new generation of New Jersey children will grow up being able to enjoy the beautiful countryside.

In America, there are currently 1 million unsold new homes, suggesting that the drive to build, build and build is not a wise one. There are strip-malls and shopping centres enough in New Jersey. While I'm all for supporting free enterprise and market forces, I think New Jersey needs a hundred acres of woodland far more than it needs another K-Mart.

By voting 'yes,' the people of New Jersey created a market force of their own - and proved that preserving the countryside was something they were willing to invest their tax dollars in.

4: Should we revise language outlining when voting rights can be denied by deleting from the state Constitution the phrase "idiot or insane person" and replacing it with the phrase "person who has been adjudicated by a court of competent jurisdiction to lack the capacity to understand the act of voting."

This was another resounding yes - and requires very little explanation.

The Next Step

Back when I was studying politics at Plymouth College of Further Education, we were taught that local elections can mean a lot of different things. Sometimes they can even predict the direction national politics will take.

If that's the case, I think New Jersey has spoken.

Support for the Democrats seems strong, suggesting that NJ will lean towards a Democratic candidate in 2008's presidential elections. However, this support is tempered by a growing demand for fiscal responsibility - and any hopeful candidates should accept and embrace that.

I think this might well prove to be a national trend. With America balanced on the knife-edge of recession, the important election issues are a lot closer to home than people suspect. Jobs. Taxes. Inflation. The Economy.

My father figures the 2008 elections will follow the 1992 ones, with the major campaign issue being 'the economy, stupid.'

It was that mantra, hung outside Bill Clinton's campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas, that helped lure voters away from the seemingly unbeatable President Bush Snr.

Bush Snr. had seen the end of the cold war and the successful Desert Storm through - but left America in the depths of a recession. James Carville, the campaign strategist for Bill Clinton, coined the phrase 'it's the economy, stupid' to make Americans consider domestic financial issues as well as foreign policy ones.

It was enough to topple Bush Snr, whose approval ratings had been at 80% just the year before.

Now history threatens to repeat itself! With a Bush in the White House and a Clinton standing at the gates. Except this time, the departing Bush Jnr has an approval rating barely half that of his father.

If the local elections in New Jersey have taught us anything, it's that the winning presidential candidate will need to have some sensible spending ideas that will send the American economy trundling out of the doldrums.