Russian dictionary confuses 'Withdrawal' with 'Occupation.'

Associated Press: SACHKHERE, Georgia – Russian forces on Wednesday built a sentry post just 30 miles from the Georgian capital, appearing to dig in to positions deep inside Georgia despite pledges to pull back to areas mandated by a cease-fire signed by both countries. Read the article here.

Vladimir Putin: Crazy Ivan?

Would somebody please explain what Russia's up to?

First they invade a country and effectively annex two of it's provinces, looting, raping and ransacking on the way. And now, despite promises to withdraw their troops from Georgia, they're digging in and helping themselves to whatever the can get their grubby Russian mitts on (in one case, a few American humvees.)

As if this wasn't bad enough, they're even threatening to nuke Poland! The former Soviet republic, now chummy with America and NATO, is installing an anti-missile shield to protect the west from any missiles fired by rogue states (and yes, my Russian comrades - I think that includes you.)

"Poland is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent," General Anatoly Nogovitsyn , the deputy chief of Kremlin staff, was quoted as saying. "Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them."

Basically translated as: "If you help America (or France, or Britain, or Israel) we have given ourselves the authority to nuke you."

Is it a genuine threat? Or just more duplicitous Russian sabre-rattling?

"The United States has a firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice gently warned, admitting: "such comments [from Russia]border on the bizarre, frankly.''

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop dismissed Russia's threats as: ''Pathetic rhetoric. It's unhelpful and it leads nowhere."

It might be unhelpful, but it's pretty frightening. Russia's become (to use a frankly ridiculous American term) 'emboldened' in recent months and I think they're just testing the waters to see how much bullshit they can get away with - rather like a child poking a dog with a stick.

Amusingly, the more outrageous Russia's behaviour becomes, the quieter the pro-Russian bloggers get. Despite utterly fantastical attempts to justify the invasion of Georgia, I think even their ability to suspend disbelief falls flat when faced with the latest Kremlin craziness.

I would not be surprised in the slightest if Comrade Vladimir Putin is swigging some of his country's homemade vodka, the way he's been acting lately.

The Last Word on Georgia...

I don't think there's much point in me writing anything more about the crisis in Georgia. You can read more accurate fact and opinion elsewhere. I'd only originally started blogging about it because I was annoyed at certain bloggers delighting in Russia's rampant aggression.

The fact is, what started off as pro-Russian pandering by a few misguided bloggers has now descended to little more than farce. This morning, scrappy journalist Neil Clarke decided to launch the 'Russophobe of the Week award,' attacking journalists who criticized "Russia's perfectly legitimate and proportionate action to stop ethnic cleansing and genocide in South Ossetia."

Honestly - there's no need for me to try and repudiate that rubbish. It's just so utterly blinkered that anybody with an ounce of journalistic integrity is rolling in the aisles after reading it.

Even Mancunian-in-Mexico The Exile, who has been successfully wading through the facts and fiction of this war (and less successfully, trying to put a pro-Russian spin on it) admitted today that "the war over South Ossetia was an old fashioned land grab."

You can interpret the origins of this crisis any way you want - but you can't deny how it's all ended up. Russia is occupying Georgian territory and clearly has no intention of leaving until their aims are accomplished - specifically the absorption of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Whatever feeble higher moral ground Russia might have had has been abandoned now they've got their eyes on the prize.

"One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity."

Back when James Bond got taken out of retirement in 1996's Goldeneye, he slyly said to his boss, M, that when it came to Russia: 'Governments change. The lies stay the same.'


Yesterday, the Russian government angrily refuted claims that tanks and soldiers were occupying the Georgian city of Gori. This morning, they admitted that the troops were there - and that they were sending even more of them in.

"One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the world - Russpeak for 'watch while we annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia like we'd intended to do from the very beginning.'

For years, the Russians have been funnelling funding and weapons to the two disputed provinces to stir up a separatist movement. Russians have handed out Russian passports to 90% of the population, preparing them for the inevitable. South Ossetia and Abkhazia will surrender autonomy for autocracy - and be swallowed up by their neighbour.

Accusations of war crimes and an angry refusal to speak with Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili were the first steps of Russia's second objective - to topple the democratically elected and pro-western government of Georgia and replace it with one more sympathetic to their former Soviet masters.

Fortunately, America has stepped up to the plate. By sending humanitarian supplies into the Georgian capital of Tbilisi - soon to be joined by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - they've given Russia a very clear message that the government's staying exactly as the voters wanted it.

Condoleezza declared: "This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed."

But have they really changed that much?

With up to 100,000 Georgians ethnically cleansed from the disputed provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there's little to stop the Russians redrawing the map and enveloping the two regions into their own country. America and the United Nations certainly aren't in much of a position to stop them.

Nobody's quite sure how this will all end - but one thing is certain. The bleating of the pro-Russian apologists is getting increasingly less convincing as this diplomatic crisis continues.

Kremlin: "It depends on how you define 'invasion'..."

Mancunian-in-Mexico The Exile is continuing his coverage of the conflict in Georgia with stiff denials that the Russians are up to anything. The 50 tanks reported rolling into Gori this morning were, according to him, just a military resupply column that 'got lost.'

In 1939 a German military resupply column 'got lost' all the way to Krakow.

In all honesty, I don't think Russia's trying to take over Georgia any more. They might not even head towards the capital, Tbilisi. All they're doing is making the Georgians, Americans and Europeans very clear who is in charge down there.

The Russians are swarming all over Georgian territory. That much is a fact. All these photos were taken today, in Georgian territory, by Reuters and Associated Press reporters.

Is it an invasion? Possibly not. What it is is a buttload of Russian soldiers, tanks and trucks slap-bang in the middle of Georgia - where the Russians cynically claim they're not.

I think the political term for this is 'inplausible deniability.'

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These guys are seperatist militia from South Ossetia - driving Russian military vehicles past convoys of Georgian refugees.

To the untrained eye, these pictures might seem to show a convoy of Russian tanks rolling through Georgian territory. Rest assured, both the Russians and The Exile know better. They're just a figment of your imagination.

Here are pictures of the poor, lost 'resupply convoy' that the big, nasty Associated Press misrepresented as a heavily armed military convoy rolling through Gori this morning.

Although one of the Russians in this convoy yelled to a reporter: "We're going to Tbilisi!" they apparently started heading off in a completely different direction - lending weight to The Exile's theory that they plugged the wrong address into their Tom Tom GPS.

Ceasefire (the Russian version.)

Russian tanks photographed in Gori this morning. But not 'invading' apparently.

One of the prices of war is an awfully large amount of bullshit.

Yesterday, Russia and Georgia reached a tentative ceasefire in their conflict over the breakaway province of South Ossetia. The pro-Russian bloggers (like charmingly misguided journalist Neil Clarke) celebrated:

"This is a crushing defeat not only for Georgia... ...but for the entire Russophobic movement. The British scribblers who wrote of Russia's invasion of Georgia... ...have got an incredible amount of egg on their face.There was no 'Russian invasion of Georgia'"

Mancunian-in-Mexico The Exile even demanded tribute for his 'accurate' assessment of the conflict:

"On Monday most of the world's media were reporting that Russian troops were flooding out of South Ossetia and into Georgia proper. They claimed that the cities of Gori and Senaki were occupied and went on to make the risible claim that the whole of Georgia had been cut in two... ...There was only one slight problem with that thesis: it was pure bollocks, as readers of this blog knew at the time. Put bluntly, your friendly Exile got the story right, and most of the media just got it wrong. Is my work worth a donation? ...is a fiver too much to ask?"

The only problem - this morning, the Russian's give both our erstwhile bloggers the middle finger, doing exactly what Neil and The Exile promised they wouldn't. The Russians continued their advance into Georgian territory. About 50 Russian tanks rolled through the city of Gori today - one Russian soldier proudly boasting to an Associated Press reporter: "Come with us! We're going to Tbilisi!" [That's the Georgian capital - Editorial Bear]

So, Exile - I'm afraid you'll have to wait a while on that five quid from me. Your 'right' version of the story appears to be getting more and more 'wrong' by the minute.

More on Georgia...

Like a toddler fighting a heavyweight, Georgia isn't putting up much of a fight against Russia's troops. Despite calls for a ceasefire, Russia is brutally advancing through the small country and has successfully bisected it.

This is quite astonishing. It's not a diplomatic matter any more - a squabble over a couple of rogue provinces. It's an invasion, plain and simple. Within hours, Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, might be captured. Will that be before or after the last of the Georgian resistance is eliminated with typical Russian efficiency?

I think it's clear what Russia's intention is - to teach Georgia (and any other former Soviet republics) that friendship with the US and support of the United Nations will not be tolerated. I imagine a new government (friendly to the Russians, rather than the West) will be put into power soon enough to eliminate the 'problem.'

In addition to neutering a potential NATO ally, Russia's diplomatic (if not military) control of Georgia will give them access to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which pumps millions of gallons of oil to the Black Sea.

We've all just seen how easily manipulated the price of oil can be (and how devastating the effect on America's economy it is.) It fills me with dread to think of the unscrupulous Russian government with a stranglehold on 'America's addiction.'

NOTE: Some people are already talking about a third tactic explaining Russia's wildly disproportionate military response. With war in the headlines, oil prices creeping higher and more uncertainty in the world, it's almost certain that an increasing number of America voters will lean towards a presidential candidate who they feel has experience in 'national security.' i.e. John McCain.

Russia shows her true colours...

Since I've written extensively about Kosovo in previous posts, I guess it would be remiss if I didn't throw in my opinion about the chaos that's overtaken Georgia at the moment (that's the former Soviet Georgia, not the one the Duke boys live in.)


The Conflict in Georgia

Georgia used to be part of the Soviet Union. In 1991, as the Iron Curtain fell, the region declared independence. However, two regions of the new Republic of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, contained a strong separatist movement that refused to accept being part of the new Republic of Georgia. They almost immediately declared themselves independent of the Georgian government and, in 1995, 'ethnically cleansed' the two provinces of over a quarter of a million Georgian citizens.

Since that date, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have both effectively been independent provinces, despite angry noises from the Georgian government. Georgia has attempted to regain control, but the separatists have led a fierce resistance against them.

A few days ago, the tentative ceasefire broke down when the Georgian government accused the separatists of bombing villages in Georgia. The Georgians entered separatist territory to 'defend themselves' and reclaim their turf. However, the Georgian push was met with a frightening response.

The old bear, Mother Russia herself, sent troops and airplanes into separatist and Georgian territory - reacting with brutal military might to 'protect the independence' of the two breakaway provinces.

What we're left with is a de facto invasion by Russian forces into a neighbouring country.

Hypocrisy

The Russians may want people to believe that they're 'lending military support' to the separatist movement in Abkhazia and South Ossetia - and both breakaway governments have actively asked for their support in defending themselves from the Georgians.

However, their real intentions are utterly transparent.

Given their angry response to Kosovo's independence - Russia's never been too fond of breakaway republics ever since they got a bloody nose in Chechnya - it seems astonishing that they'd suddenly support the fight for independence in Georgia.

The truth is, Russia's not interested in independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia at all. They're looking to absorb both provinces into Russia itself. Once the Georgian military is silenced, both provinces will be occupied by the might of the Russian army for a long, long time to come.

NOTES:

Following some emails, I'd just like to clarify the following:

1: No, I'm not 'on the Georgian's side.' Shooting at women and children, burning down villages and generally being brutal towards civilians in disputed territory is unacceptable. It was certainly unacceptable when it was Serbs doing it is Kosovo, so I don't see why it should be any different here.

2: 90% of the population of South Ossetia have Russian passports. Some emailers have argued that this means that the breakaway province might as well be part of Russia. Funnily enough, some of these emailers are the same people who argued the complete opposite when I pointed out that 90% of Kosovo's population was ethnic Albanian, so why should the province become part of Serbia?

3: I don't see how Russia's invasion of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Georgia can be called a 'liberation' by the same people who said the UN's arrival in Kosovo to stop the bloodshed was an 'unwarranted, illegal occupation.' I don't see how they can justify Russia killing thousands of civilians in bombing raids as 'within their rights' and yet criticise Bill Clinton for bombing Belgrade during the Bosnian crisis. Are these people really so blind as to not see the similarities?