Friday, June 06, 2008

Why Obama's Going to Win...

I'm placing my bets - and I think (like everybody else) that Obama's got 2008 sewn up.

I don't think that's a particually insightful declaration - most of America would probably agree with me. But it's interesting to look at the reason why Obama will have McCain beat by the time the election comes around.

Firstly, and most importantly, Obama's rich.

Compare McCain's fundraising ability to Obama's and you can't fail to see that Obama will dominate this election financially. Even after cutting out lobbyist donations from the Democratic campaign (which reinforces his image as 'change you can believe in') conservative estimates reckon Barack will be able to raise $300 million by the November elections.

With clever advertising and a good message, Obama threatens to steal even traditionally Republican states from McCain come election day.

Secondly, there's a race thing. Pessimists and apologists have claimed that America will never support an African American candidate. Recent history has shown that to be completely untrue.

In fact, I think Obama's race will be a positive aspect of his campaign. After all, when you're talking about the 2008 elections to your grandchildren, do you really want to say you ignored the opportunity to elect America's first black president and instead voted for the grumpy white guy?

Thirdly, there's Obama-mania. To paraphrase the pundits: 'People freakin' love him, man!'

Barack Obama won the primaries against the seemingly invincible Hillary Clinton by appealing to a whole new class of voters. It was these students, radicals and the formerly apathetic who stood for Obama during the primaries and these new voters proved to be more powerful than Clinton's sizable number of stalwart supporters.

These new voters will make all the difference come the general election, too.

Finally, there's what Obama is promising - which is pretty much whatever you want. The promise of change is beautifully vague. With America caught on the brink of recession and a lingering, bloody conflict continuing overseas, the American voters want change even if they're not exactly sure what that change is.

That's a hell of a hand of cards Obama's holding and whatever aces McCain has up his sleeve, I'm not sure they're sufficient to tip the balance in his favor.

[You go from a poker-playing metaphor to a see-saw one in the space of a single sentence. Nice writing, Jackass! - Editorial Bear.]

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