
The reactionary push-back on Global Warming has turned me from a firm believer into somebody who is more open-minded about the subject. There
are parts of the case for Global Warming that don't add up entirely - but that doesn't necessarily mean it's
all wrong.
Contributing to that is the conservative approach to disputing Global Warming - which suffers from the fact that it
is a
conservative approach.
Like disputing the age of the Earth or the facts regarding evolution, conservatives decide what they believe first and try to dredge up supporting facts
afterward, which means even if they're right, they're wrong in the way they got there.
The conservatives who dispute Global Warming often undermine their argument by confusing real fact with conjecture, half-truth and (sometimes) outright lies. A close examination of the conservative argument against Global Warming runs into several so-called 'truths' that contradict each other.
That's what keeps their case from being watertight. You can't just scoop up all the 'reasons' why Global Warming is a myth unless they logically fit together.
Take the 'case' presented by American Policy Roundtable - an online forum for conservative discussion.
Their reasons to dispute Global Warming include:
- Most scientists do not believe human activities threaten to disrupt the Earth’s climate.
- Our most reliable sources of temperature data show no global warming trend.
- Global climate computer models are too crude to predict future climate changes.
- The IPCC did not prove that human activities are causing global warming.
- A modest amount of global warming, should it occur, would be beneficial to the natural world and to human civilization.
- Efforts to quickly reduce human greenhouse gas emissions would be costly and would not stop Earth’s climate from changing.
- Efforts by state governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are even more expensive and threaten to bust state budgets.
- The best strategy to pursue is “no regrets.”
Taken at face value, you'd be forgiven for thinking that they make a compelling case against Global Warming. However, let's examine the evidence a little more closely.
Where the Conservatives get it RightFirstly, the facts that
do shake the foundations of Global Warming Theory:
- Global climate computer models are too crude to predict future climate changes.
This is true enough. Even cursory examination of the computer models used to 'predict' the impact of Global Warming show them to be wildly off-kilter.
One such computer model used 'flux adjustments' to justify boosting the claimed impact of Global Warming by 2500%. Another produced the same 'hockey stick' predication for global temperatures no matter what numbers were entered into the database. Telephone numbers from the local Yellow Pages produced the same result as accurate temperature readings!
The scientists in charge are either postulating wildly, or simply lying their arses off.
- Our most reliable sources of temperature data show no global warming trend.
One of the most compelling arguments against Global Warming was satellite temperature analysis of the troposphere.
Scientists have been recording ground temperatures for decades, watching them steadily increase to support the Global Warming theory. However, satellite readings of the troposphere (the layer of the atmosphere where scientists predicted the biggest increase) originally showed no discernible increase in temperature over the course of 23 years - undermining the case for climate change.
Since then, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has 'corrected' that data to better support their case for Global Warming. Given the less than accurate computer models I complained about above, I find these 'corrections' highly suspicious.
While they don't
disprove global warming theory, they certainly make me more skeptical about the evidence used to support it.
Where the Conservatives have got it WrongThen let's look at the 'facts' that undermine the argument against Global Warming.
- Most scientists do not believe human activities threaten to disrupt the Earth’s climate.
This is an outright lie.
An outright lie. While there
are thousands of scientists who dispute global warming, they in a minority compared to the
hundreds of thousands who
do.
One Salient Oversight (who is himself a conservative Christian, just one with a brain) posted this chart that shows the
real scientific consensus regarding global warming:

This chart illustrates that 97% of scientists who study climate change agree that Global Warming is a
fact.
Over 90% of climatologists who don't study climate change, merely the climate, don't dispute Global Warming either.
As
OSO succinctly put it:
"It is obvious from the study that the "controversy" exists only in the minds of the general public and not in the minds of the experts who know the facts."Just as the dodgy computer models and 'corrected' data cast doubt on the case
for Global Warming, the fact that the opponents
blatantly lie makes it very difficult to take them (or their arguments) seriously. If they lie about this, what else are they lying about?
- The IPCC did not prove that human activities are causing global warming.
This is the same argument that conservatives use to 'dispute' things like evolution. There are so-called 'theories' (like gravity) which are supported by such an
overwhelming amount of evidence to make most arguments against them nothing short of ludicrous.
Conservatives think they demand a high burden of proof (which is why they still haven't accepted evolution.) The truth is, scientists demand an even
higher burden of proof (which is why gravity is
still considered a theory.)
Short of having total control over the entire planet's CO2 production (including farting cows) it would be impossible to 'prove' Global Warming. Instead, you have to make do with millions of pages of evidence that indicate that it's real.
But even that isn't the real kicker in the argument. I mentioned earlier than the conservative argument against Global Warming is often self-defeating. This is an example.
Conservatives argue that the world
isn't warming up, yet they then use the scientific data that proves it
is to dispute whether or not mankind is responsible. Not only have they failed to prove their theory, they've also contradicted one of their arguments against it.
- A modest amount of global warming, should it occur, would be beneficial to the natural world and to human civilization.
American Policy Roundtable use a real Global Warming enigma to shore up this claim: Back in the middle ages, there was an unexplainable 'hot period' which defied current understanding of climate change (and possibly offers the most convincing argument against the theory.)
What is doesn't do is support the belief that Global Warming would be a good thing.
Back in the middle ages, the 'warm' period was a boon - making crops grow faster and making relatively uninhabitable places (like Greenland) warm enough to colonize (as the Vikings did.)
So for the people of the medieval heatwave, the increase in temperature was a good thing. However, there were merely millions of them - as opposed to the billions who inhabit Earth at the moment. This means those millions could simply move to escape the less positive effects - like rising oceans and desertification.
Because the world is so densely populated today, rising sea levels and the expansion of the desert will prove devastating for millions of people - there's no way around that fact.
One of the most compelling pieces of evidence supporting Global Warming theory is the fact that the Sahara Desert expands 30 miles further south each and every year - destroying grassland and forcing more and more people towards starvation.
There are simply too many of us on this little planet - so Global Warming will be devastating in a way undreamed of back in the 'hot' medieval period.
Where the Conservatives got it StupidFinally, we need to examine the last three 'arguments' against global warming - these neither support or oppose the theory. They're merely stupid.
- Efforts to quickly reduce human greenhouse gas emissions would be costly and would not stop Earth’s climate from changing.
First off, this isn't an argument about the veracity of Global Warming - it's an argument against doing anything about it.
The cost and effectiveness of any anti-Global Warming campaign is a very important topic to discuss. The fact that China and India churn out more and more gases every year makes the West's effort to curb their CO2 emissions somewhat self-defeating.
But whatever you might feel about the government's plans to tackle Global Warming, that
has no relevance on whether or not Global Warming is real.- Efforts by state governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are even more expensive and threaten to bust state budgets.
Again, the fact that tackling Global Warming might well be economically and socially catastrophic doesn't mean it's not real.
This kind of 'argument' is pathetic. It's as futile as King Cnut, enthroned on a beach, demanding that the waves don't wet his robe.
The conservative mindset seems to equate the
undesirable with the
impossible. Just like they 'choose' to believe in creationism and intelligent design, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, they 'choose' not to believe in Global Warming because the moment they do, they have to start addressing the difficult choices in how to deal with it.
I have a huge amount of sympathy for the conservatives, however.
When it comes to tackling Global Warming, I don't think the current administration's policy of offsets and trade caps will be the best for the country. But just because I disagree with the way this problem's being dealt with doesn't mean I'd be so arrogant as to refuse to believe in the problem itself.
- The best strategy to pursue is “no regrets.”
This is my personal favorite of the American Policy Roundtable arguments against Global Warming - because it
isn't. It's basically the conservative way of accepting the inevitable, admitting that global warming exists and saying 'so what?'
It undermines all seven of the previous arguments.
But it gives a sensible solution to the problem - asking: If the price of today's technological marvels, international transportation and modern conveniences was Global Warming - would we have done anything differently?
The conservative position is ideologically one which embraces the status quo. In many ways, their refusal to examine the facts and accept that Global Warming is real has
nothing to do with whether it
is (or not.)
They just refuse to accept Global Warming theory because, if they do, it means they have to address it and deal with the consequences.
If the conservatives really wanted to win this debate, they should embrace the facts: "Global Warming might be real - but that doesn't mean we have to do anything about it."
It's not smart. It's not clever. It's not very sophisticated. But it would prove that conservatives aren't idiots (because they actually accept facts when they're thrust into their face) and it would win the support of the masses.
After all, not doing anything is something the general population are very good at.